March 2009 – Shakaama’s Blog

What Planet is Warren Buffet On?

Recently Warren Buffet has been appearing on the national scene, moreso than before. He is now the darling of both the press and Washington.

He figured prominently during the bailout talks when he invested $5 billion in Goldman Sachs. There was a proverbial gasp heard

round the investing nation at the time because everyone knew the financials were in trouble, in general, banking in specific. But, let’s look at his deal. At the time the stock seemed like a steal. In fact, many thought he was taking advantage of the venerable bank. For Berkshire Hathaway, it bought a US$5 billion equity stake in the dominant player of the industry, and for its money receives a guaranteed dividend of 10 per cent a year on its perpetual preferred shares. On top of that Goldman’s gave Berkshire 5 year warrants which give Berkshire the right to buy 43.5 million common shares of Goldman Sachs at a strike price of US$115 at any time before 2013. However, banking stocks tanked, the crisis deepened, Goldman shares hit a low of US$47.41 on November 21st. After writing an op-ed piece for the New York Times on why he buys America, Mr. Buffet came in for criticism.

However, we are talking about Warren Buffet. I’m often reminded of the movie “Wall Street” when i think of him. Anything he purchases will sooner or later gather stragglers, who mistrust their own investment skills. Goldman shares have doubled since November, closing at $111.93 last Monday.

“The Investment bank has had to change its business model, and reduce the amount of leverage it carries on its balance sheet, but some business areas are positively on fire with flow or client driven trading benefiting from wide spreads being charged and really bringing in the moolah.” [what a shocker, that actually works]

For every silver lining however there is a cloud. The GE deal Berkshire got, with those same warrants, don’t look so delicious. The warrants were for an aggregate cost of $3 billion @ $22.25 per share. Ge closed at $10.43. Yeah, not so much.

Which brings me to the next point. Disciples of the value strategy, like Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett, focus on the long-term intrinsic value of a company, hoping to buy shares in good companies at reasonable prices. For financial stocks—some of which haven’t or won’t survive the crisis—it’s nearly impossible to identify the long-term value, whether through profits, cash flow, or other measures.

But what are companies worth these days? What is the value of a company that accepts TARP money? Hard isn’t the proper word for what investors are up against when trying to figure this out, impossible is more like it. And these atrocious bailouts and stimulus packages flowing out of Washington and the Federal Reserve [secretly, psssst hey AIG, come here in the alley i got some more money for ya] are only hurting the situation. In the mean time Buffet is seen publicly on T.V. talking about he praises Obama for his efforts and he’s optimistic for the long term. Was that on a Hallmark card Warren? “Get Well Soon America” from your buddy Warren.

He’s lost it. In fact if you go back and look at Berkshire Hathaway’s performance versus the dow over the past 20 years, it has underperformed. GASP!!! Not the sage of Omaha!!! Oh brother. Yes he’s lost it. Hell, he got lucky in the first place. He never “had” it. A study was done once, some university economists [this is no joke, this is serious research here] wallpapered their class with the Wall Street Journal [yay free plug WSJ] blind folded several students, gave them darts and had them throw them. They picked the stocks they landed on and invested. [don’t try this at home kids, these guys have PhDs] Every single student’s stocks out performed the DOW. GASP!!! [and i would have gotten away with it if it weren’t for you meddling kids] Apparently they did this study for years. They concluded that the big performer investors are simply lucky and actually have no “magical skills” to predict good stocks. [ha what do those snotty nosed professors of economics know]

So Warren [we’re on a first name basis] says he’s optimistic for the economy and Obama’s the bee’s knees. Wellllllllll Peter Schiff, Ron Paul, Lou

Rockwell, Judge Napolitano, Glen Beck [I had to mention him so people who Google his name read this blog teehee], all say the exact opposite. And, I agree with them [but who listens to me *sigh* I need a hug]. Can vultures pick up the pieces Warren Buffet leaves behind? Sure, mull over the carcasses of the straggler investors who follow him blindly. But, be wary and trust your own learning. Read Adam Smith. Be an “Austrian” school of economics disciple. These Keynesian economist are the darlings of Washington right now, since they chant spend, spend, spend.

For the rest of us, invest in gold. Buy dividend paying stocks OVERSEAS. Stay away from cash and the dollar. When this hyper-inflation hits, [oooooh boy don’t you dare argue with me there] and it will hit, all of your cash is going to go up in smoke.

How many billionaires…. were removed off the Forbes Billionaire list.

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Boston Mourns Their Silent Son: The Death of Larry Glick

“Here’s Boston late night talk radio legend Larry Glick in his prime getting “The story behind the story” from a caller reading a
newspaper article to him. This call was replayed dozens of times by Larry at the request of his callers who almost nightly would ask him to play “The Orangutan”. To his credit he would only play it once every 2-3 weeks. about half way through Larry and the caller are laughing so hard they can hardly speak. Larry’s laugh was so infectious you can’t help but laugh with him. As Larry was WBZ’s overnight host I was on the receiving end of my parents wrath at about 1:30AM when I would be giggling and snorting into my pillow trying to be quiet while hysteria ensued on the air.”

Longtime WBZ radio host Larry Glick died Thursday night in Florida after undergoing 10 hours of open heart surgery. He was 87.

The Larry Glick Show Radio Podcast: Click Here

“A typical show might feature a sometimes serious guest, an exchange of repartee with his hapless (and usually less witty) engineer at the station, and free-ranging free associations on current events and life. Some callers became institutions like Larry: Arnold Tarbox, the dry and droll Maine fisherman; Charlie DiGiovanni, a wisecracking Boston cabdriver; the Champagne Lady; Boston newspaper legend, Kenny “The Night” Mayer; and a number of others. A call from some of these regulars could seem like a visit from an old friend.”

“Prior to ending its run on WHDH in 1992, Larry’s show went out first over WMEX in 1965. By 1967, he had been hired by WBZ, where he would spend the next 20 years. WBZ Radio was a powerful 50,000-watt station that blanketed the six New England states and reached well beyond, from the Maritime provinces of Canada down through the Carolinas in the South and as far west as the Rockies. Third-shift workers and insomniacs throughout much of the eastern seaboard and midwest took comfort when Larry’s unique brand of talk radio came on at midnight. For six hours, Larry’s affable and charismatic voice enfolded a mix of lighthearted chat, sassy sound effects, obscure and funny musical numbers, and lots of generally wacky calls from listeners.”

“Long time and famous late night talk show host Larry Glick returned to Boston from his home in Boca Raton, Florida, to celebrate a milestone birthday with friends. Larry and Jack Williams have been close friends since 1975. Jack made frequent appearances on Larry’s talk show on WBZ Radio. Among those in attendance at the big celebration were Roger Berkowitz, president of Legal Sea Foods, and David Mugar. ”

Excerpt from an article one of his regular guests wrote: ”

The “Glick University” held its classes very late at night, so if you did attend, your relationship with the president, Professor Glick, became very personal. Many lonely people have told us that his show helped them get through the night. He provided a great public service for years, so it is nice to see that he is richly enjoying his retirement.

I called him today and as always he answered, “Hello, Glick here.” I asked how he was and he whistled and said, “Let me check.” Larry looks and acts 25 years younger than his age and I believe his happy disposition is the major reason. …”

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We’re All Just Human: Michael Jordan Cries at Son’s Basketball Championship Game

It’s often that people prop legends up to such lofty heights that they cannot conceived of them “doing number 2” or even worse having a bad day and not wanting to sign autographs. I’ve heard gruesome tales of stars who are complete jerks or worse, angels because they did or did not tip a limo driver. We’re often ravenous to read paparazzi driven rag magazine tales of celebrities gone bad, only to find out that the celebrity in question simply went out to their mailbox at 9a.m. in a house coat.

Case in point? We have basketball legend crying at his son’s state champion win. I personally don’t see the big deal. What’s to marvel at? He’s a father. But the reporters seemed so amazed because

1. do black people cry over their kids when they do awesome deeds like be lead scorer in the state championship?

2. is a basketball legend like Micahel Jordan human enough to shed tears of joy over a mere son of his?

You might think those questions are harsh for me to bring up. But, if you’ve been reading my blog you know that I ask the obvious questions that people are feeling but dare not whisper in public for fear of “seeming” not “P.C.”. I’m pretty sure P.C. led to Nazi Germany coming to power in some shape, form or fashion. Personally, I’d much prefer someone tell me how they honestly feel, than to be confronted with “P.C.” and then stabbed in the back later, wondering where it came from.

Am I personally amazed that Michael Jordan cried at his son’s game? No, it’s non-news. I’m amazed the reporter thought it was amazing, and that the news has spread like wildfire in the white dominated media. It speaks volumes of their state of mind. Here’s the story:

“Jordan’s son wins state championship
Associated Press
PEORIA, Ill. – Michael Jordan celebrated another Chicago basketball championship – his son’s.
Marcus Jordan, son of the Bulls’ six-time champion, scored a game-high 19 points to lead Chicago Whitney Young to a 69-66 victory over Waukegan in the Illinois Class 4A championship Saturday. As Marcus Jordan and his teammates celebrated on the court after the final buzzer, Michael Jordan stood quietly, clapping his hands with tears in his eyes. “Crying?” the NBA great said in response to a reporter’s question. “I’m not crying. Not for me, anyway.” ”

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Sports Betting: Get Better or Get Out

sports-horse-race-small — Sports Betters Click Here

Sports betting is the general activity of predicting sports results by making a wager on the outcome of a sporting event. The better pits his wits and skill against time, chance and unfortunately unforseen events. Some might say there is no skill involved in sports betting. But, unlike other forms of gambling, sports betting is in fact all skill. There is less chance involved in the endevor than other forms of gambling, i.e. poker, blackjack, roulette wheel, bacarat. The “ability” to predict future outcomes in sports involves these key subjects: your knowledge of the general history of the sport; your knowledge of the specific history of each teams; your knowledge of the historical probability of location impinging on the outcome; your attention to minutia of each individual athlete, including all of their statistics; your attention to minutia of each team organization and management. This is a daunting list, bar none. But, once mastered, these subjects are the key to your being a successful sports better.

sports-michaeljordanslamdunk-small — Sports Betters Click Here

Perhaps more so than other forms of gambling, the legality and general acceptance of sports betting varies from nation to nation. In the United States, the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1994 makes it illegal to operate a “betting, gambling or wagering scheme”, except for in the states of Delaware, Nevada, and Oregon. Nevada, however, is the only state currently allowing sports gambling, while in many European nations bookmaking (the profession of accepting sports wagers) is highly regulated but not criminalized. Proponents of legalized sports betting generally regard it as a hobby for sports fans that increases their interest in particular sporting events, thus benefiting the leagues, teams and players they bet on through higher attendances and television audiences.

Opponents fear that, over and above the general ramifications of gambling, it threatens the integrity of amateur and professional sport, the history of which includes numerous attempts by sports gamblers to fix matches, although proponents counter that legitimate bookmakers will invariably fight corruption just as fiercely as governing bodies and law enforcement do. Most sports bettors are overall losers as the bookmakers odds are fairly efficient. However, there are professional sports bettors that make a good income betting sports, many of which utilize sports information services.

sports-module9092170photo_1208073052capta380bbbf09bd42c8acba8c742a34ad7dtigers_white_sox_baseball_cxs106-small — Sports Betters Click Here

However, I did list chance and unforseen events. These are the curve balls [no pun intended] that throws the monkey wrench into the whole careful planning. Let’s take a look at this in a minute.

Odds for different outcomes in a single bet are presented either in European format (decimal odds), UK format (fractional odds), or American format (moneyline odds). Moneyline odds are favoured in the United States. They are the amount won on a 100 stake when positive and the stake needed to win 100 when negative. Moneyline odds of 100 are an even bet.

Bookmakers generally offer two types of wagers on the winner of a sporting event: a straight-up or money line bet, or a point spread wager. Moneylines and straight-up prices are used to set odds on sports such as

association football, baseball and hockey (the scoring nature of which renders point spreads impractical) as well as individual vs. individual matches, like boxing. For these sports, bookmakers in Europe and Asia generally use straight-up odds, which are quoted based on a payout for a single bet unit; for example, a 2-1 favorite would be listed at a price of 1.50, whereas an underdog returning twice the amount wagered would be listed at a price of 3.00. American bookmakers generally use moneylines, which are quoted in terms of the amount required to win $100 on a favorite, or the amount paid for a $100 bet on an underdog. The amount “won” in a bet is the net amount over and above the initial bet. If a person wins $200 on a bet of $100, the bookmaker actually pays the winner $300 (i.e. $200 plus the initial bet of $100).

sorts-peterose_bcolwidec-small — Sports Betters Click Here

Betting, like any gambling, can involve high stakes. As such it is very tempting to take out “chance” and “unforseen events”.

# In 1919, gamblers bribed several members of the Chicago White Sox to throw the World Series. This became known as the Black Sox Scandal and was recounted in book and movie form as “Eight Men Out”.
# In 1951, District Attorney Frank Hogan indicted college basketball players for point shaving from four New York schools, including CCNY, Manhattan College, New York University and Long Island University.
# In 1978, mobsters connected with the New York Lucchese crime family, among them Henry Hill and Jimmy Burke, organized a point shaving scheme with key members of the Boston College basketball team.
# On August 24, 1989, former baseball player Pete Rose voluntarily accepted a permanent ban from Major League Baseball for allegedly betting on Reds games while managing the team. Rose would later confirm the truth of the allegations in his 2004 autobiography, My Prison Without Bars.

sports-washington_re_20070917215622_gallery_600-small — Sports Betters Click Here

Those scandals aside, what can the average joe do to help himself get ahead and be a more successful sports better? Taking out the “chance” and “unforseen events” are the only key things out of the better’s control. But one can reduce those two key things so that they don’t affect you as much. How? Learn from someone better. Like I said in the begining, sports betting is a skill. And, like life, there is always someone bigger, faster, stronger, wiser, smarter than you. You aren’t so conceited as to think on thsi planet of multiple billions of people that that’s not the case? I’m sure you’ve might have seen a movie or read an article where people form corporations just to sports bet. Sure, they have a den of M.I.T. kids that have figured out the ultimate formula in horse racing, boxing, baseball, football and soccer matches. If they can figure out how to count a shoe of 5 decks of cards, how hard would it be to piece together a formula for a horse race? I’m not saying this to scare you. I’m not saying this to make you feel unworthy. I’m saying this to encourage you to ever seek more and more and more information, a better player, a wiser guru. Oh and trust in human nature. Everyone loves praise. Everyong craves fans. If a guy has figured it all out in soccer betting or tennis betting, don’t you think he’d be in tears if you came to him telling what a great guy he is and how smart he is for figuring it out and asking him how he did it? He wouldn’t be able to contain himself.

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Where Have All the Flowers Gone: the Death Of Ron Silver

Political activist, father, son and actor Ron Silver, aged 62, died today March 15th, 2009. He lost his battle with esophageal cancer. He is said to have died peacefully in his sleep with his family around him. He battled the cancer for two years. He is survived by both parents, brothers Mitchell and Keith, son Adam, and daughter Alexandra. He was always a beautiful man, outside and in. He had a head full of hair, a disarmingly big smile and a charm and wit for the best of them.

Ron Silver was a prolific actor, yet a staunch political activist. Not only was he just an activist, but he is reported to have had a breadth and depth of political knowledge that would dwarf the most astute and charismatic politician to date on the world stage now. A terribly fierce independent [a man after my own heart] and consumate debator, yet caring intellectual. He was no stranger to the political pundit world, a most erudite and eloquent ambassador of politics if ever there was one. Campaigned for Michael Dukakis in the 1988 presidential race. He had been, in his words “a lifelong Democrat of the Truman mold”. He broke away from the Democratic Party concerning the War on Terrorism. He spoke at the 2004 Republican National Convention in New York City.

Ron Silver was also a fine and consummate actor. He began his acting career on the New York stage in 1971. He won Broadway’s 1988 Tony Award for Best Actor as Charlie Fox in David Mamet’s “Speed the Plow.”

Some of his film and t.v. work includes:

his portrayal of defense attorney Alan Dershowitz in “Reversal of Fortune”;	Click here to purchase the dvd
1998, starred opposite Kirstie Alley for the last 2 seasons of Veronica’s Closet;	Click here to buy the DVD
his portrayal of Muhammad Ali’s boxing cornerman Angelo Dundee in Ali 2001.	Click here to buy the DVD
from 2001 to 2002 and 2005 to 2006, he portrayed presidential campaign advisor Bruno Gianelli on The West Wing.	Click here to buy the DVD

“By inclination I am more of a politician than I am an actor. I care more about public policy. I care more about pro-choice, the environment, homelessness, and nuclear issues than I do about any part.” – Ron Silver (July 2, 1946 – March 15, 2009) rip

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